Blackjack insurance: safety net or wasted bet?
Blackjack insurance: safety net or wasted bet?

October 17, 2024, 13:00

What is Blackjack insurance?

When reviewing the rules of Blackjack, insurance is a topic that should not be overlooked. Insurance is a side bet that can be placed when the dealer has an ace as a face-up card. This option is offered to all players just before the dealer checks that his face- down card is a 10. If the dealer has blackjack, the insurance bet pays out 2:1.

It feels like a safety net. You have a good hand, or maybe a bad one, and you don't want to lose instantly to a dealer Blackjack. But is this bet actually saving you money, or is it just bleeding your chip stack?

Here is the cold, hard math behind the button.

TopicDetails
Blackjack insuranceInsurance is offered when the dealer shows an ace. If the dealer eventually has blackjack, the insurance bet pays out at 2:1.
Amount of insuranceThe bet is half the amount of the original wager.
Advantages of insuranceYou can break even if the dealer has blackjack, especially when many 10-value cards (10s, Jacks, Queens, Kings) have been dealt.
Disadvantages of insuranceOdds are unfavorable (actual chance of dealer blackjack is ~30.77% vs. the implied 33.3%).
When to take insuranceUseful only for card counters when the “true count” is +3 or higher. Requires skill and quick calculations.
Tips for casual playersAvoid insurance as the odds are generally unfavorable. Basic strategy charts advise against it. Surrendering may be better in some situations.

The Short Answer

Should you take insurance? No.

Unless you are an expert card counter (which doesn't work on standard online software), insurance is statistically one of the worst moves you can make at our table games. It drastically increases the casino's advantage. Ignore the fear, skip the bet, and play your hand.

Green blackjack table where the player has the option to take insurance

What "Insurance" actually is

The name is misleading. You aren't "insuring" anything. You are placing a completely separate side bet.

When you click that button, you are betting that the dealer’s hole card (the hidden one) is a 10, Jack, Queen, or King.

The Cost: Half your original bet.

The Reward: Pays 2:1.

The scenario: You bet €10. The dealer shows an Ace. You drop €5 on insurance. If the dealer does have Blackjack, you lose your €10 hand bet but win €10 on the insurance. You break even. If the dealer does not have Blackjack, you lose the €5 instantly and still have to play your hand against the Ace.

Why the math hates you

Casinos don't offer bets that lose them money.

Look at the deck. There are 52 cards.

16 cards are worth 10 (10, J, Q, K).

36 cards are not.

If the dealer has an Ace, you need that hole card to be a 10. The probability of that happening is roughly 30.8% (16 out of 51 remaining cards). The casino, however, pays you at odds of 2:1, which implies a 33.3% chance of winning.

Do you see the gap? You are betting on something that happens 30% of the time, but getting paid as if it happens 33% of the time.

The Cost of Fear Playing strictly by basic strategy keeps the house edge down to around 0.5%. Taking insurance spikes that edge to nearly 7%. You would get better odds playing random Dice Slots.

Why we click it anyway (The Psychology)

If the math is terrible, why do people do it? Loss aversion.

It hurts more to lose money than it feels good to win it. The casino knows you are afraid of the dealer's Blackjack snatching your chips away. Insurance gives you a feeling of control. It’s an expensive illusion.

If you want to gamble on pure luck, Roulette is a better fit. Blackjack is a game of calculated risk. Trust the numbers, not your gut.

Is there ever a good time to insure?

Technically, yes, but probably not for you.

  1. Are you counting cards?

    No: Never insure.

    Yes: Proceed to step 2.

    2. Is the deck rich in Tens?

    ○ If you know for a fact that the remaining deck is loaded with tens (a True Count of +3 or higher), insurance becomes a mathematically sound bet.

    A note on online play: Most online blackjack uses RNG (Random Number Generators) that shuffle the deck after every single hand. This makes card counting impossible. Even in a Live Casino, the cut card usually prevents deep shoe penetration.

    The verdict: Keep your finger off the button.

    Ready to test the math? Now that you know which button to avoid, you can play with confidence.

    What about "Even Money"?

    If you have a Blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, they offer "Even Money." This is just insurance in disguise. You get paid 1:1 immediately instead of risking a push. Don't take it. A Blackjack pays 3:2. Over time, taking 1:1 costs you money. Always go for the full payout.

    Does insurance help with bonuses?

    Rarely. Side bets like insurance usually contribute very little (or nothing) to wagering requirements. Check the Promotions terms before you try to clear a bonus this way.